The Best Lead Measure in The NYC Housing Market Right Now


Complaining vs Acting

I got some great advice about complaining a long time ago.  It’s like a rocking chair.  It gives you something to do, but it doesn’t get you anywhere.  And boy, do people like to complain about every real estate market.  If the market is up, they complain they missed out.  And if they think it is down, then they are annoyed, too.

If you want to complain about low inventory, I get it.  There’s been a lull in inventory which you can read about here, in our monthly Inventory Report.

But instead of just looking in the report to find reasons to complain, you can use it as one of a few tools to get an edge in the market.  There, you’ll see that inventory is actually just about the same as it was at this time of 2022.  The difference is that the pace of sales has slowed considerably.  But will it stay that way for long?  

I don’t see it that way.

Looking for An Edge in This Real Estate Market?

Here are three ways to turn low inventory to your advantage, because so many others will site in their rocking chair and not take advantage of it.

1. Get educated now

Go and see as much as you can see right now.  Ask lots of questions, learn what questions to ask, and LISTEN.  You’ll learn a ton.  You don’t need hundreds of apartments, anyway.  You just need one that you love.  And getting more granular on that front….

2. Bid Low On Old Inventory

If something has been sitting on the market, then there’s a chance that those sellers are more flexible than new sellers.  And it’s also likely that their pricing is more off-the-mark than new inventory.  So take a shot with some old inventory.  You may be surprised.

3. Go And See Everything New That Hits the Market

As soon as something new comes on, go and see it.  This will give you a terrific idea of the pulse of the market.  Don’t wait.

 

And I Suppose I Buried The Lede.

Hamptons Summer Rentals

here’s one important lead measure of the health of New York’s real estate market

If you go and see a lot of inventory, there’s a chance that you will end up attending open houses.  Whether they are by appointment, or the “old school” kind that allow you just to show up, open houses help you become a quick study.

But it’s more than that.  Open houses are the leading indicator that will give you an edge on the market.  And we track attendance across our firm.  

Here’s the Secret:  Open House attendance is WAY UP. 

Post-COVID, January, from our recent internal report:

“For this week, we have seen 90 reporting, which is almost the same as last week’s, so please participate if you can, a larger reporting means a more accurate result.  We are continuing to see REAL POSITIVITY AND MORE RECORD BREAKING STATS IN SO MANY CATEGORIES in addition to a climb in the open house traffic.  Here is a live link that tracks all data from this weekend, going back 19 weeks is for your reference.”

If you want to see the tabs, you can click here.

It’s nothing pretty.   But it shows, unequivocally, that buyer interest has picked up.

What Does This Mean For The Market?

  • As buyer activity continues to pick up, prices will stabilize- if they haven’t started to already.
  • As inventory rises, buyer enthusiasm will drive more sales
  • We may not see the low inventory environment that buyers are complaining about for very long.

Nor the bad real estate market – AKA a buyer’s market- for very long, either. -S

 

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