I was lucky enough to run my 11th marathon this past weekend in Minneapolis (translation: Cloudy Water, for those who didn’t know).
A gorgeous town before the snow hits, with neighborhoods that are built around lovely lakes.
And as I head to Boston while I’m writing this for a conference, I’ve got the “Love that muddy water” song in my head courtesy of The Standells.
What does this have to do with the market?
Well, I’m thinking about running, which seems a fairly apt description of the market, whether you’ll need to sprint at times, or just get a good pace going for a longer property search.
This market seems to require a bit of both, a hybrid shoe that is light, but has enough padding for buyers, who will need to spend some time looking to find the right fit.
3rd Quarter numbers came out October 1st, and more recent news courtesy of the Real Estate Board of New York is showing prices moving up 6% year over year.
Anecdotally, which is likely why you’re reading this- the market is insanely busy. Get warmed up.
But the biggest story is the lack of inventory.
Any hope for listings by buyers to have more property choices has evaporated.
With that in mind, if you find something you love, move quickly.
This market is not really waiting for you.
There is a housing shortage at this point- we are seeing price increases on the high end, but it is also happening in the small two-bedroom market, as well as surprising demand for 1-bedrooms.
(We’ll fill in more links for you to look at later today).
We were happy to have a feature in the New York Times recently, showcasing a West 105th street unit that sold that week.
Already in contract less than 2 weeks later.
And so the lack of motivated sellers has been difficult for brokers for whom business is more than 50% seller representation, and even worse for brokers who only represent buyers- volume is only down due to too few units to sell!
The unrenovated 2-3 bedroom spaces that need someone willing to take on a project- are finally seeing buyers.
I wanted to cover the mortgage market in a bit more detail since it seems to have brought all buyers out of the woodwork.
With that in mind, buyers putting 20-30% down are having issues, but they are qualified and patient enough to get the purchases done.
Most managing agents are navigating the underwriting obstacle course that underwriters are putting them through, with grace and style- I didn’t know they had it in them!
But they seem to be taking it in stride.
Refinances and purchases are money makers for them as well, of course.
Continuing the sprinting thought- there are bidding wars, buyers sprinting to sign a contract against other qualified buyers, followed by the slog of lender underwriting.
So, unfortunately, the process alternates between sprinting and jogging at a slow pace.
You have to stay in shape at the very least.
That’s been an interesting change.
For the last two years, negotiating has not been this harried.
The biggest challenge is endurance-
finding a 3-bedroom on the west side for under $1.5mm, or finding a 2-bed/2bath under $1.25mm, or finding a 2bed/1bath for under $900k with any space.
One bedrooms coops haven’t seen the return to 2008 pricing, but it’s going in that direction.
I predict a pickup in cooperative inventory in the Spring- barring some totally unforeseen disaster.
I want to keep an eye on condominiums specifically, because there is the least inventory there.
More to come in November.