Here are a few statistics to think about:

• Inventory is up 25% year over year across Manhattan
• Inventory is at a 5-year high
• Absorption Rate is up year-over-year in every single size apartment across Manhattan, not a great thing
• There is now more than a year’s worth of 3-bedroom+ condominiums, and 15-months of 3-bedroom+ cooperatives on the East Side
• Condominiums are actually selling faster this year on the West Side
• Cooperative Apartments on the West Side pace of sales is consistent year over year

The Absorption Rate is the number of properties on the market at a given time, divided by the average number of units sold per month.

If the rate is going up, this means that it is either (1) a slowing of the pace of sales, (2) an increase in inventory, or (3) a combination of both.

Since the time on the market is relatively consistent- relatively speaking between 2-3 months, and we know that inventory is up- it would appear that the pace of sales hasn’t changed.
Are there valid takeaways here?

It is critical to note that inventory is a bit higher.

This is promising.

Buyers want to see more property, and with more inventory, buyers are less prone to fatigue.

Fighting over very few apartments can be disheartening.
Further, since we see the pace of sales is pretty consistent year over year, the takeaway to my mind is actually that the prices have softened to the point where buyers are taking action.

This is incredibly good to see.

This bears out with last month’s quarterly report.

Prices are trending flat to down.
Anecdotally, we’re seeing a bit of everything right now:

• Bidding wars for 1-, 2-, 3-, 4-bedroom apartments
• Properties seeing multiple price chops when they came to market overpriced
• Properties selling close to asking price when well-priced
• Units going to contract relatively quickly when in good condition
• East Side coops simply being out of favor when their carrying charges are too high
• West Side condos being out of favor with high charges

Buyers remain on the fence unless compelling prices move them.

This should be encouraging for sellers- the market is not dead- it’s just adjusting.

And if sellers don’t adjust pricing, with mortgage rates adjusting upward, and increasing inventory, they could definitely be left behind.

If I don’t need to write much more, perhaps that isn’t a terrible thing.
More next month!