So, a lot of gnashing of teeth, plenty of concerns in the real estate community have all come to a halt; the L train, which we expected to shut down for 18 months or likely longer, now will remain open, mostly, except for when it is shut down.
So, overnights, weekends.
I’m guessing that people will complain, regardless.
The effects of the shutdown were going to be:
- A retail implosion while the shutdown is in place
- A slowdown of condo prices and real estate prices in general in all area where the L train is the major or only train
- A migration of tenants out of L train world into other areas with better transportation options, like Upper Manhattan
- A paradigm shift, once tenants realize there are other areas to live like the Bronx, Upper Manhattan, perhaps NJ
- The vast unknown of secondary impacts, perhaps a rise in Philadelphia’s fortunes; bicycle shops closing; who knows what else?
I would have to guess that some property owners who bought pre-L train shutdown information, perhaps sold before this new information appeared.
Did someone lose money?
I would have to think yes.
I also would guess that there was some heavy lobbying in Albany to find an alternative solution to a complete shutdown.
Bravo to all of those lobbying efforts!
Or bravo to that intrepid engineer who came rushing into the room, sweaty and wide-eyed, like that guy in “The Martian” who figured out how to save Matt Damon’s character by whipping around Earth and using gravity as an accelerator.
And now, what may happen?
Well, I can think of a few things:
- First, Williamsburg rents don’t implode
- Retail restaurant scene in Brooklyn EXplodes, given that most residents won’t be as mobile on the weekends for a while
- Real Estate Prices rebound to a certain degree, in line with the rest of the market, wherever it goes
- Upper Manhattan and Bronx developers continue to do exactly what they were doing.
There is probably enough demand to build what they’re building; priced-out renters are still going to need other options.
- Long Island City G train development may be less in favor, except in Long Island City
It would seem there is more good news piling up in Brooklyn, as long as asking prices don’t get out of hand.
Either way, it’s really interesting to watch things turn on a dime.
I don’t think anyone saw this coming.