Almost all the

latest indicators point to a strengthening local economy.

• Lower mortgage rates, averaging 4.28%, down a few basis points –

  a year ago, rates were averaging 3.52%

• Over 91,000 jobs added in NYC over the last year
• A push for less Federal involvement in mortgages, which should

  make mortgages easier to get!

• Unemployment At Five-Year Low In NYC, down to 7.8% in January, the lowest since 2009!

  Last year this number

  was 8.9%

Additionally, the apartment inventory’s latest absorption report, while ticking up as

is

normal in spring, still shows

a lack of inventory.
The news is constantly shifting, and we can predict with near certainty that mortgage rates will begin a near inevitable climb at the end of the year, if not a little sooner.

What does that mean?

Well, we expect prices to level off a little bit in 2015.

As rates go up, certainly purchasing power will be diminished, coupled with

reduced inventory.

Then, likely, we’ll see an increase in inventory, whether from

properties’ slightly more reasonable time frame on the market, or simply from sellers who finally determine to sell.
However, will that mean better “deals” for buyers in 2015?

I wouldn’t

think so, necessarily.

First, I’m considering what

the market will mean for buyers and sellers in the near term.

I continue to see a crush of buyers

scrambling for property under $5mm.

Sold in 3 days

at

just under $1000 per square foot.

This will break all building records and was a shock, even

as I expected lots of interest.

All cash deal.
2) Upper West Side – Every 3-bedroom property we have bid on in the last four weeks has gone through a

“best and final” bidding process.
3) Even a small downtown studio we just got into contract had 30 visitors

at its first open house, and a full asking price deal.
4) And a

downtown condo resale we represented just went into contract at

over $2150 per square foot – again, shattering an old record.
Buyers will try to take advantage of lower rates for as long as they can.

Then, as rates climb, the sellers will push pricing barriers,

but as we may see absorption rate ticking up,

prices

may

flatten out.

Naturally.

Still, in no way does it look like a hard landing.

The market certainly

remains red hot across the city and, in

my view, simply

is returning to a more “normal” environment.
The very high end of the market may not have enough buyers who qualify for high-end cooperatives along either side of Central Park, and we already see this process unfolding to a small degree.
For those buyers waiting for the other shoe to drop – it does not appear to be happening soon.

Rather, the other shoe is on vacation, avoiding this red hot market during this awfully cold winter.

Happy Spring.